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- News On Bitcoin - Week 50 2024
News On Bitcoin - Week 50 2024
Weekly update on all things Bitcoin
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TL;DR
BTC is up
Bitcoin dominance is up
BlackRock Advocates 2% Bitcoin Allocation
MicroStrategy Joins Nasdaq 100
VanEck Predicts Crypto Correction in Q1 2025
Russia Considers Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Amazon Shareholders Push for Bitcoin Reserves
Japan Considers Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
JPMorgan Boosts Bitcoin Mining Stock Targets
Japan Considers Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Bitcoin Miners Earn $71.5B, Just 3.6% of Market Cap
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Bitcoin Price
Crypto has been fluctuating this week, with BTC being up 0.1% and ETH down 3.7%:
Bitcoin dominance has increased over the week, starting from 52.0% to a high of 54.02% and ending at 52.9%. Investor sentiment, regulatory changes, technological advancements, and the overall growth of the cryptocurrency sector shape Bitcoin's market dominance. Its reputation as "digital gold" also enhances its position, making it a key player in the market.
It’s going to be interesting to see whether this trend will continue in the short term, as capital in crypto tends to flow initially to BTC and then further out on the risk-curve, starting with altcoins like ETH and then into mid- or low-cap coins.
Bitcoin is poised for significant growth in 2025, with price forecasts ranging between $175,000 and $461,000.
Based on Fibonacci extensions and historical trends, Bitcoin is expected to follow its typical pattern of peaking at key Fibonacci levels. With strong buying pressure since November 2024, investor confidence remains high, and the long-term outlook remains bullish.
Bitcoin's price target for 2025 is forecasted to range from $173,646 to $461,135. This estimate is supported by past bull cycles and Fibonacci extensions, with Bitcoin historically peaking at the 1.618, 2.272, and 3.618 Fibonacci levels.
If macroeconomic conditions remain stable, Bitcoin is likely to reach at least $173,646, with a potential to hit $461,135.
Bitcoin's price has remained above $95,000 since November 2024, signaling strong investor confidence.
Although short-term volatility may occur, long-term expectations for Bitcoin’s price in 2025 are optimistic. Unless significant macroeconomic disruptions occur, Bitcoin is expected to continue its upward trajectory.
Miners have shifted towards consistent hodling, with only 3,700 BTC sold in 2024, compared to 41,000 BTC in 2021. This change in behavior suggests a long-term outlook, potentially supporting Bitcoin’s price. Miners' continued accumulation of Bitcoin could further drive upward price momentum.
Despite Bitcoin's $2 trillion market cap, miners have earned only 3.6% of this value, with $71.49 billion accumulated in total. Most of their earnings come from block subsidies rather than transaction fees. This highlights the reliance on block rewards as a primary income source.
Bitcoin’s transaction volume has reached $131.25 trillion, with $4.18 billion coming from transaction fees. Miners primarily generate revenue from block rewards, underlining their key role in the network’s security.
Bitcoin’s long-term growth remains promising, supported by miner resilience and market dynamics. The price forecast for 2025 is expected to range from $173,646 to $461,135, as Bitcoin continues its upward momentum.
Miners, although earning a small share of the total market cap, continue to benefit from Bitcoin’s increasing value, securing the network for future growth.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Analysis:
As of December 13, 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $100,051. The short-term outlook is positive, with resistance at $98,000 broken and the next target between $105,670 and $108,490. In the medium term, Bitcoin has strong support at $70,000, and the price objective of $84,547 has been met. The long-term trend remains bullish, with support at $72,000 and no immediate resistance, indicating further potential upside.
Bitcoin (BTC): Support at $96,788.87; Resistance at $105,670 - $108,490.
Market Outlook:
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $100,051, with resistance at $105,670 - $108,490 and support around $70,000. The medium-term target is $115,000. For 2025, price predictions range from $175,000 to $461,000, supported by historical trends, investor confidence, and miners holding their BTC. This, along with Bitcoin's growing global role and strong network security, suggests continued upward momentum.
BTC/ETH ratio has seen an increase:
The BTC to ETH conversion rate has experienced a steady increase over the past six days. Starting from 24.94 ETH per Bitcoin on December 07, the rate gradually rose, reaching 26.00 ETH on December 13. This represents an increase of approximately 4.2% during this period, with some fluctuations along the way.
“Bitcoin is the ultimate form of free speech and democracy..”
Financial News
BlackRock, managing $11.5 trillion in assets, recommends a 1-2% Bitcoin allocation for traditional portfolios, highlighting its diversification benefits while emphasizing risk management. In a typical 60/40 portfolio split, Bitcoin’s risk profile aligns with mega-cap tech stocks like Apple and Microsoft, which also influence risk-weighted portfolios significantly.
However, allocations exceeding 2% could amplify overall volatility due to Bitcoin’s unique market dynamics. This cautious endorsement marks a pivotal step in Bitcoin’s mainstream acceptance, signaling its role as a credible asset. As Bitcoin’s volatility declines, its utility and adoption in institutional strategies could grow, further integrating cryptocurrency into global financial systems.
MicroStrategy has expanded its Bitcoin reserves by acquiring 21,550 BTC for $2.1 billion, raising its total holdings to 423,650 BTC—equivalent to over 2% of Bitcoin's total supply. The company’s average purchase price for its entire stash is $60,324 per BTC, with recent acquisitions averaging $98,783 per BTC.
Since November 11, the firm has added 171,430 BTC, solidifying its position as the largest corporate Bitcoin holder. MicroStrategy’s stock has surged over 2,500% since adopting Bitcoin in 2020, demonstrating investor confidence. However, its growth strategy remains high-risk, as its fortunes are increasingly tied to Bitcoin's volatile market performance.
Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) has expanded its Bitcoin treasury with the purchase of 11,774 BTC for $1.1 billion, funded through zero-coupon convertible notes. This brings MARA’s total holdings to 40,435 BTC, valued at approximately $3.9 billion—nearly 0.2% of Bitcoin’s finite supply.
The company has achieved a year-to-date Bitcoin yield of 47.6%, underscoring its aggressive accumulation strategy. Despite a Q3 net loss of $124.8 million, MARA’s approach mirrors MicroStrategy’s bold Bitcoin bet, reflecting confidence in its long-term potential. However, the strategy carries risks tied to debt and shareholder dilution, making it a high-stakes play on Bitcoin’s future.
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VanEck forecasts a medium-term peak for the cryptocurrency market in Q1 2025, followed by all-time highs by year-end. The asset manager predicts Bitcoin (BTC) reaching $180,000, Ethereum (ETH) surpassing $6,000, and Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI) exceeding $500 and $10, respectively.
However, a 30% retracement in Bitcoin and potential 60% declines for altcoins are expected as the market consolidates. VanEck also anticipates increased institutional adoption in 2025, driven by Bitcoin's potential strategic reserve and the approval of more crypto ETFs. Analysts expect market volatility before these highs materialize.
Nasdaq has announced the inclusion of MicroStrategy (MSTR), led by Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor, in the Nasdaq-100 Index starting Dec. 23. This positions the company among Nasdaq's 100 largest stocks by market cap. Alongside MicroStrategy, Palantir and Axon will join the index, replacing Illumina, Super Micro, and Moderna.
The addition also integrates MSTR into the $322 billion Invesco QQQ Trust ETF, increasing Bitcoin exposure for global funds. Crypto analysts hailed the move, predicting broader Bitcoin adoption. The announcement follows Saylor’s pitch to Microsoft, emphasizing Bitcoin’s transformative potential, though the proposal was rejected by Microsoft shareholders.
Adoption News
Russian State Duma Deputy Anton Tkachev has proposed creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve akin to the country’s traditional currency reserves. Submitted to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, the proposal argues that Bitcoin offers a viable alternative to inflation-prone and sanction-vulnerable currencies like the dollar and euro.
The initiative also aligns with Russia's ongoing experiment in cross-border crypto settlements. This proposal comes amidst a global trend, with nations like the U.S., El Salvador, and Brazil exploring similar reserves. Recently, President Putin reinforced Bitcoin’s inevitability, legalizing its mining and emphasizing its growing role in international trade and financial stability.
The City of Vancouver has approved a motion to explore integrating Bitcoin into its financial system. Led by Mayor Ken Sim, the initiative includes examining Bitcoin's potential for tax payments, municipal reserves, and as a hedge against inflation. A feasibility report is expected by Q1 2025.
While proponents highlight Bitcoin's decentralized nature and performance as a hedge, critics cite environmental concerns and its links to crime. Regulatory hurdles, including restrictions on local governments holding digital assets, could impede progress. The study will assess risks, benefits, and environmental impacts, marking a pivotal moment in Vancouver's financial strategy.
Microsoft shareholders voted against a proposal to allocate 1% of the company’s $78 billion treasury to Bitcoin at the December 10 shareholder meeting. Citing Bitcoin’s price volatility and its unsuitability for stable reserves, Microsoft’s board emphasized the need for predictable investments.
The proposal, backed by MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor, garnered only 0.55% approval. While Bitcoin advocates criticize this cautious stance, Microsoft prioritizes investments in strategic areas like AI. The board remains open to reassessing Bitcoin as regulations evolve and markets stabilize, reflecting the ongoing debate between traditional finance priorities and digital asset opportunities.
Japanese Member of Parliament, Satoshi Hamada, has proposed that Japan establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, following the lead of nations like Argentina and Russia. This suggestion arises amid recent fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price, which have sparked discussions about its potential as a national asset.
The proposal underscores growing interest in Bitcoin’s role within global economic strategies, highlighting how countries are evaluating cryptocurrency reserves. As Bitcoin's prominence rises, Japan may follow suit in leveraging the digital asset for economic stability.
Amazon shareholders are urging the company to invest 5% of its $88 billion in cash reserves into Bitcoin. The proposal, led by the National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR), emphasizes Bitcoin’s superior returns compared to bonds, gold, and Amazon stock, citing its 1,200% growth over five years.
Advocates argue Bitcoin offers better inflation protection than the company’s current asset mix. Drawing from examples like MicroStrategy and Tesla, the proposal highlights the potential to enhance shareholder value. If adopted, this move could legitimize Bitcoin further and mark a significant shift in Amazon’s financial strategy.
Mining News
CleanSpark, a cryptocurrency mining firm, plans to raise $550 million through a private convertible note offering set to mature in 2030. Proceeds, estimated at $535.9 million after expenses, will fund debt repayment, capital expenditures, and acquisitions, with no plans to increase Bitcoin holdings.
Unlike competitors Riot Platforms and MARA, CleanSpark focuses solely on mining without diversifying into AI or expanding BTC reserves. The company will redeem notes starting in 2028 and has implemented capped call transactions to hedge share price risks. This fundraising follows a growing trend among miners leveraging convertible bonds for financial flexibility.
Riot Platforms has acquired $510 million worth of Bitcoin, increasing its holdings to nearly $1.7 billion. This purchase follows pressure from activist investor Starboard Value, urging Riot to diversify by leveraging its mining capacity for artificial intelligence (AI) services.
Reports suggest pivoting to AI could unlock $37 billion in market value for miners, with Riot potentially gaining $4.8 billion. Despite the AI opportunities, Riot remains committed to building its BTC treasury, a strategy lauded by analysts and investors as Bitcoin surpasses $100,000. This dual focus on BTC and emerging technologies reflects Riot’s aim to maximize shareholder value and growth.
