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- 2025: Bitcoin's Big Leap | Bitcoin Newsletter Week 2 of 2025
2025: Bitcoin's Big Leap | Bitcoin Newsletter Week 2 of 2025
Weekly crypto update on all things Bitcoin to keep you updated
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TL;DR
BTC is down
Bitcoin dominance is up
Bitcoin ETFs Poised for $70B Inflows by 2025
Russia Sells Seized Bitcoins from Bribery Case
MicroStrategy Bolsters Bitcoin Holdings with $101M Buy
UK Judge Dismisses $770M Bitcoin Landfill Case
New Hampshire Proposes Bitcoin Reserve
Thailand to Pilot Crypto Payments in Phuket
CleanSpark Reaches 10,000 BTC Milestone
Thai Police Seize 996 Bitcoin Miners in Raid
Sen. Ted Cruz Supports Bitcoin and Crypto Growth
And much more!
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Bitcoin Price
Crypto is down this week, with BTC down by 3.7% and ETH down by 9.5%:
Bitcoin dominance has increased over the week, starting from 53.2% to a high of 54.49% and ending at 54.4%. Investor sentiment, regulatory changes, technological advancements, and the overall growth of the cryptocurrency sector shape Bitcoin's market dominance. Its reputation as "digital gold" also enhances its position, making it a key player in the market.
It’s going to be interesting to see whether this trend will continue in the short term, as capital in crypto tends to flow initially to BTC and then further out on the risk-curve, starting with altcoins like ETH and then into mid- or low-cap coins.
Bitcoin has recently faced heightened market volatility, dropping to $92,000, its lowest level since December 2024. This correction, an 11% decline between Jan. 7 and 9, triggered liquidations exceeding $257 million in leveraged long positions.
Broader financial market dynamics, including strong U.S. economic data and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve rate policies, have added pressure. Despite these challenges, several indicators suggest Bitcoin may have found a local bottom, signaling a potential recovery.
On-chain metrics highlight compelling trends. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which measures profitability among short-term holders, dropped to 0.98. Historically, SOPR values below 1 have marked periods of capitulation, often preceding price rebounds.
Similar patterns in 2024 saw Bitcoin rally over 60% to record highs above $108,000 after SOPR dipped into the buy zone. This metric suggests that the recent correction may have purged weak hands, creating an entry point for long-term investors.
Further bolstering this narrative, the entity-adjusted dormancy flow, a ratio comparing Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the annualized dormancy value, fell below the critical 250,000 level. This threshold has historically identified strong buying opportunities.
Past dips in this indicator have coincided with the onset of bull markets, including the rally to $69,000 in 2021. With the dormancy flow flashing green again, optimism is building for another upward trajectory.
Long-term holder (LTH) behavior also supports the recovery thesis. LTHs, who recently engaged in profit-taking during Bitcoin’s ascent to $108,000, appear to be transitioning from distribution to accumulation.
Glassnode data indicates that the peak in LTH distribution has likely passed, aligning with previous market bottoms. Reduced selling pressure from these holders underscores a shift toward market stability, further reducing downside risks.
Broader macroeconomic factors are also shaping Bitcoin's outlook. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies remain a focal point for investors, with hints of prolonged rate stability potentially easing liquidity constraints.
Stock market movements, including the S&P 500’s resilience despite rising yields, have supported risk-on sentiment, indirectly benefiting Bitcoin. Additionally, speculation surrounding U.S. government-held Bitcoin sales has largely been dismissed, alleviating market fears of significant supply shocks.
Investor sentiment is gradually improving. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which fell from “greed” to “neutral,” suggests that panic selling may be subsiding. This index historically aligns with market turning points, signaling that current price levels may be a consolidation phase rather than the beginning of a prolonged downtrend.
Institutional interest also remains robust, with over 34,000 BTC reportedly accumulated since December. This buying activity reflects confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.
While the possibility of Bitcoin retesting $90,000 cannot be entirely ruled out, analysts remain optimistic. Strong on-chain metrics, easing distribution from long-term holders, and sustained institutional accumulation collectively point to a V-shaped recovery.
With these factors in play, Bitcoin could reclaim its upward momentum, potentially targeting a return to levels above $100,000 in the coming months.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Analysis:
As of January 10, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $93,846. The short-term outlook is bearish, with support at $92,354 and resistance at $98,000. A break below support could signal further decline. In the medium term, Bitcoin shows neutral development, with support at $70,000 and resistance at $106,000, indicating potential consolidation. The long-term trend remains positive, with support at $72,000 and no immediate resistance, suggesting continued upward momentum.
Expected Trading Ranges:
Bitcoin (BTC): Support at $92,354; Resistance at $98,000.
Market Outlook:
Bitcoin’s recent drop to $92,000 suggests a potential bottom, supported by key metrics like SOPR and dormancy flow indicating recovery. Institutional buying and reduced selling from long-term holders add confidence. While a dip below $90,000 is possible, a V-shaped recovery toward $100,000 or higher is expected in the near term.
BTC/ETH ratio has seen an increase:
In the last six days, the BTC to ETH conversion rate has generally increased. Starting from 26.83 ETH per BTC on Jan 4, 2025, it rose to 28.97 ETH on Jan 10, 2025, marking a 1.95% increase overall. While there were fluctuations, including slight daily changes, the overall trend has been positive, with most of the days showing an upward movement in the rate.
“The entire fiat economy, with all its finance titans, is based on a currency designed to rob its users, and so cannot outperform a neutral internet protocol which only does one thing: not get debased. Upgrade to bitcoin if you don’t like getting robbed.”
Financial News
Bitcoin ETFs are set to double their 2024 inflows, reaching $70 billion in 2025, driven by growing institutional adoption. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust rebounded from record outflows, signaling resilience. Institutional ownership is projected to rise to 40%, with ETFs potentially holding 10% of Bitcoin’s supply.
Analysts predict Bitcoin will hit $200,000 by late 2025, fueled by regulatory shifts under a Trump-led administration and broader corporate adoption. BlackRock’s IBIT dominated 2024, amassing $53 billion in assets. Experts see current outflows as routine year-end adjustments, not a trend reversal, underscoring the growing appeal of Bitcoin ETFs for institutional portfolios.
Fred Thiel, CEO of Marathon Digital Holdings, predicts Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by institutional adoption, regulatory changes, and growing understanding of Bitcoin’s value. He foresees a short-term correction to the $90,000 range before a major price increase.
Thiel emphasizes the role of Bitcoin ETFs and potential strategic Bitcoin reserves from countries like the US, Russia, and Switzerland in pushing the price up. He advises retail investors to adopt a long-term approach, gradually investing and holding Bitcoin, which has shown significant annual growth over the past 14 years.
Metaplanet, a Tokyo-based company, has set a bold target to acquire 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025, up from its current 1,762 BTC valued at $175 million. This aggressive strategy aligns with bullish bitcoin market predictions, with prices expected to surpass $200,000.
The company, led by CEO Simon Gerovich, began integrating bitcoin into its treasury in April 2024 and has since grown rapidly. Metaplanet used various financial tools, including loans and bond issuances, to fund its acquisitions. It forecasts significant revenue growth and aims to become a key player in the global bitcoin space through systematic accumulation and expansion.
Russian authorities have begun liquidating part of the 1,032 bitcoins seized from Marat Tambiev, a former investigator convicted of accepting bribes. The bitcoins, confiscated in 2023 following a court ruling, were allegedly obtained from the Infraud Organization in exchange for not seizing their assets.
Tambiev, currently serving a 16-year prison sentence, had split the bitcoins into smaller amounts, causing legal challenges for bailiffs attempting to sell them. So far, authorities have been authorized to sell $10 million worth of BTC, with plans to liquidate more. Tambiev's co-accused also face significant legal consequences.
MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 1,070 Bitcoin for $101 million, averaging $94,000 per BTC. This purchase raises the company's total Bitcoin reserves to over $44 billion. Despite significant investment, the market has shown skepticism, as MicroStrategy's stock has dropped 40% since November, reflecting concerns over its strategy of issuing shares to fund Bitcoin acquisitions.
The company's average BTC purchase price now stands at just under $63,000. CEO Michael Saylor remains committed to increasing reserves, with plans to issue $2 billion in preferred stock for further acquisitions. This move highlights MicroStrategy's unwavering belief in Bitcoin's long-term potential.
Adoption News
James Howells, an IT engineer from Newport, Wales, has lost his legal battle to recover a $770 million Bitcoin hard drive mistakenly thrown away in 2013. The hard drive, containing 8,000 BTC mined in 2009, was disposed of and ended up in a landfill.
The Newport City Council denied Howells access to the site, citing environmental permit restrictions. Judge Keyser dismissed the case, stating it had “no realistic prospect” of succeeding. Despite the loss, Howells' ownership of the Bitcoin was acknowledged, potentially paving the way for future monetization options.
New Hampshire Representative Keith Ammon has introduced a bill to establish a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" in the state treasury. The proposed legislation would permit the state to invest in Bitcoin and other digital assets alongside traditional investments like precious metals.
This marks a significant step in recognizing cryptocurrencies as a viable state investment option. A hearing on the bill is scheduled for next week. This move follows a broader trend seen in other states, with North Dakota also advancing similar legislation, underscoring growing acceptance of Bitcoin as a strategic financial asset at the state level.
Thailand is launching a pilot program in 2025 to enable tourists to use Bitcoin for transactions in Phuket, a popular tourist destination. The initiative, announced by Deputy Prime Minister Pichai Chunhavajira, will operate within existing legal frameworks, allowing visitors to register Bitcoin through a Thai exchange and verify their identities before making purchases.
The program aims to integrate digital currency into everyday transactions, making digital payments more accessible in tourism-focused cities. BTC transactions will be converted into Thai baht through a clearinghouse, promoting competitiveness and enhancing Thailand’s business opportunities in the digital era.
Fidelity Digital Assets predicts that nation-states will incorporate Bitcoin into their strategic reserves in 2025, propelling significant growth in the crypto market. Research analyst Matt Hogan emphasized that nations, central banks, and sovereign wealth funds may follow the examples of Bhutan and El Salvador, which have seen substantial returns.
Hogan warned that not allocating Bitcoin could become a risk due to issues like inflation and currency debasement. The firm also expects digital asset products, including Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, and tokenization to become mainstream, with tokenized value potentially doubling in 2025.
The US Department of Justice (DoJ) has received court approval to sell 69,370 bitcoin seized from the Silk Road marketplace, valued at $6.5 billion. This sale, one of the largest ever, follows a legal battle involving claimants seeking to delay the sale and identify "Individual X," who surrendered the bitcoin in 2020.
Analysts warn of market volatility, as seen in Bitcoin's recent drop to $92,938 before stabilizing at $94,500. While concerns persist, some experts argue the market can absorb the sale. President-elect Trump’s opposing stance on selling seized Bitcoin adds further intrigue to the timing of this decision.
Mining News
UAE-based Phoenix Group has launched a 50-MW Bitcoin mining facility in North Dakota, boosting its global hashrate by 2.7 EH/s. This marks its third North American expansion, following 2024 openings in South Carolina and Canada. Known for energy-efficient, cutting-edge technology, Phoenix plans further US expansion and a Nasdaq listing in 2025.
Established in 2017, it operates 765 MW across UAE, Canada, and the US. Its $370 million IPO in Abu Dhabi was 33 times oversubscribed. CEO Munaf Ali highlighted the Dakota site as pivotal for growth, aligning with the firm's strategy for global leadership in sustainable Bitcoin mining.
CleanSpark has surpassed 10,000 Bitcoin holdings, reaching 10,097 BTC, a 236% increase year-over-year. The company mined all its Bitcoin in the US, aligning with its commitment to American energy and job support. CEO Zach Bradford credits this growth to efficient scaling, while CFO Gary Vecchiarelli emphasizes disciplined capital strategies and sound risk management.
CleanSpark's 2024 mining output included 7,024 BTC, with only 12.65 sold in December. The company’s operating hashrate grew to 39.1 EH/s, with a 33% improvement in hashrate efficiency. Despite these successes, its stock dropped by 5.8% on January 9 amidst market downturns.
